Sami Orfali
1. Executive Summary: Turkey’s Defense Industry and the Opportunity for Military Modernization in Syria
Turkey has emerged as a significant player in the global defense market, marked by substantial growth in its domestic industry and a notable increase in arms exports. The geopolitical shifts following the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria present a potential opportunity for Turkey to play a crucial role in modernizing Syria’s armed forces. This analysis explores the key categories of Turkish military products that could be of interest to Syria, highlighting the capabilities of Turkey’s self-reliant defense industry and the potential benefits for Syria in rebuilding its military capacity. The significant political changes in Syria may have altered previous limitations on arms trade, potentially opening avenues for military cooperation and the acquisition of advanced Turkish defense systems.
2. Overview of Turkey’s Defense Industry Capabilities:
The growth of Turkey’s defense industry is rooted in a strategic decision taken after the US imposed a military embargo following the 1974 Cyprus operation, leading to a principle of “self-sufficiency”. This pivotal moment spurred the establishment of key state-owned defense companies such as Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI) in 1974, focusing on the aviation sector, and Aselsan in 1975, specializing in wireless and electronics. Subsequently, other critical entities like Havelsan (established in 1982) and Roketsan (founded in 1988), Turkey’s largest missile manufacturer, were created to further bolster indigenous capabilities. Alongside these state-backed initiatives, the Turkish defense sector has witnessed the rise of prominent private sector companies, including Baykar, known for its unmanned aerial vehicles, and BMC, a major producer of land vehicles.
Turkey’s defense industry now possesses comprehensive capabilities across air, land, and sea domains. In the air, TAI and Baykar produce a range of aircraft and unmanned systems. Land domain needs are met by manufacturers like BMC, FNSS and Otokar, offering modern armored vehicles and main battle tanks. Naval platforms, including frigates, corvettes, and patrol boats, are designed and constructed by shipyards like Istanbul Naval Shipyard and Anadolu Shipyard, often under the MILGEM (National Ship) project. Furthermore, Turkey has made significant advancements in missile systems and smart munitions through companies like Roketsan and MKEK.
The demand for Turkish defense products in international markets has grown substantially, with exports reaching over 170 countries. This increasing global footprint is reflected in Turkey’s ranking as the 11th largest defense exporter worldwide. The historical context of the post-embargo focus on indigenous development indicates that Turkish defense companies possess a wide array of domestically designed and manufactured solutions, reducing reliance on potentially restricted foreign technologies. The presence of both state-owned and private entities within the sector suggests a diverse and dynamic ecosystem, potentially offering Syria a broader spectrum of options tailored to its specific needs. The consistent growth in export volume and the expanding list of export destinations underscore the increasing competitiveness and global recognition of the Turkish defense industry.
3. Potential Turkish Military Products for Syria:
Given the current state of Syria’s armed forces and the capabilities of the Turkish defense industry, several categories of Turkish military products are potentially beneficial for Syria. As highlighted by Col. Zafer Mourad, Syria may prioritize “Unmanned Aerial Vehicles, Land Systems and Naval Platforms” as its financial resources improve, with a critical need to develop “advanced intelligence-gathering, electronic warfare, and air defense capabilities”.
3.1 Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs/UCAVs):
Unmanned aerial vehicles have become integral to modern warfare, with Turkey emerging as a leading producer in this sector.
- Bayraktar TB2 (Baykar): This battle-proven medium-altitude long-endurance unmanned combat aerial vehicle is capable of reconnaissance and combat missions, armed with Roketsan’s MAM-L and MAM-C smart micro munitions. Its successful deployment in various conflicts highlights its effectiveness and cost-efficiency for potentially enhancing Syria’s operational capabilities.
- Bayraktar Akıncı (Baykar): A more advanced medium-altitude long-endurance unmanned combat aerial vehicle with a larger payload capacity than the TB2. The Akıncı features sophisticated AI avionics, electronic support systems, and potential for air-to-air combat, carrying a diverse range of munitions.
- TAI Anka (Turkish Aerospace Industries): This family of UAVs is designed for aerial surveillance, reconnaissance, and potential combat missions. The Anka offers significant endurance and advanced sensor suites, with the potential to be armed with MAM smart micro munitions and Cirit missiles.
- TAI Aksungur (Turkish Aerospace Industries): A larger unmanned combat aerial vehicle leveraging Anka series technology. The Aksungur offers a substantial payload capacity for long-term surveillance, signals intelligence, maritime patrol, and combat operations, with twin engines providing extended endurance and the capability to carry various bombs and missiles.
- Vestel Karayel (Vestel Savunma/Lentatek): This tactical UAV system offers multi-role capabilities, including ISR and precision strikes. It features triple-redundant avionics for enhanced safety and reliability and can be armed with various missiles and rockets.
- BAHA (HAVELSAN): The BAHA is a next-generation sub-cloud UAV featuring vertical take-off and landing (VTOL) capabilities, allowing for operation in challenging environments where GPS access is denied. It is particularly effective in Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) missions.
Given Syria’s reportedly aging and potentially vulnerable air defense infrastructure, acquiring Turkish UCAVs could provide a significant offensive capability less susceptible to older systems compared to traditional manned aircraft.
3.2 Land Systems:
Turkey’s land systems portfolio includes modern main battle tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, and mine-resistant vehicles.
- Altay Main Battle Tank (BMC): A modern platform designed to rival Western counterparts, featuring a 120mm main gun, composite armor with ERA and APS, and a 1500 horsepower engine. It is expected to enter Turkish Army service in 2025.
- Tulpar Infantry Fighting Vehicle (Otokar): Designed to provide fire support to main battle tanks and safely transport troops in high-threat environments. Armament includes a 30mm cannon, coaxial machine gun, and anti-tank missiles, with modular armor up to STANAG 4569 Level 5 and various configurations available.
- Pars Series (FNSS): The FNSS Pars family represents a series of amphibious armored combat vehicles available in 4×4, 6×6, and 8×8 configurations . These vehicles prioritize mobility, protection, payload capacity, and future growth potential . Depending on the variant, they can accommodate different crew sizes and armament options, including turrets with up to a 25mm cannon . The Pars series offers high road speeds, long operational ranges, and crucially, amphibious capabilities .
- Kirpi and Vuran Mine-Resistant Ambush Protected Vehicles (BMC): Designed to offer significant protection against mines, IEDs, and ballistic threats, proving useful in counterinsurgency operations and various roles. Different variants offer tailored capabilities.
- Panter Howitzer (MKE): A 155mm/52-caliber towed artillery piece with a 40 km range using extended-range ammunition and a self-propulsion capability at limited speed.
- Fırtına Howitzer (MKE): A Turkish-produced 155mm self-propelled howitzer (variant of the South Korean K9 Thunder) with a 40 km range. An upgraded Fırtına II offers enhancements to its fire control system and potentially an autoloader.
- Cobra II (Otokar): The Otokar Cobra II is a tactical wheeled armored vehicle with a modular design that allows it to be configured for a wide array of roles, including armored personnel carrier (APC), anti-tank platform, command and control vehicle, and ambulance . It has a capacity for up to 10 personnel, including the driver and commander, and offers a high level of protection against improvised explosive devices (IEDs) and land mines.
- SARP Series (Aselsan): Remote Controlled Stabilized Weapon Platforms that can accommodate various calibers of weapons, enhancing force protection by allowing operators to engage targets from within armored vehicles .
- T-122 Sakarya Multiple Rocket Launcher (Roketsan): A 122mm system with a firing range of up to 40 km, capable of firing various rockets, including guided versions like the TRG-122 and TRLG-122.
- TRG-series Guided Rockets (Roketsan): The TRG-230 and TRG-300 offer precision strike capabilities at longer ranges (70 km and 120 km respectively).
- Boran 105mm Lightweight Towed Howitzer (MKE): Air-transportable with a range of up to 21 km with extended-range ammunition.
- Yavuz 155mm Wheeled Self-Propelled Howitzer (MKE): Offers rapid firing capabilities and a range of up to 40 km, with a truck-mounted chassis for enhanced mobility.
- ALKAR Series (Aselsan): Mortar Weapon Systems, including electronic direction and alignment systems to improve accuracy and deployment speed.
@defensearabia لقطات من الساحة الخارجية لمعرض 'ساها إكسبو' في إسطنبول #تركيا #أسلحة #معرض #إسطنبول ♬ original sound – Defense Arabia
Given that Syria’s land forces still rely heavily on outdated Soviet-era platforms, integrating modern Turkish land systems could significantly improve their battlefield effectiveness, survivability, and firepower. The proven operational success of Turkish artillery and guided missile systems provides Syria with versatile and scalable options for force modernization.
3.3 Naval Platforms:
Turkey’s naval capabilities have also seen significant advancements through the MILGEM project and other initiatives.
- Ada-class Corvettes (MILGEM project): The Ada-class corvettes, developed under Turkey’s MILGEM project, are designed primarily for anti-submarine warfare and high-seas patrol duties. These corvettes are equipped with advanced sensors, including the SMART-S Mk2 search radar and the TBT-01 Yakamoz sonar. Their armament includes a 76mm main gun, Harpoon anti-ship missiles, and MICA air defense missiles. Key shipbuilders involved in the MILGEM project include Istanbul Naval Shipyard, STM, and ASFAT.
- Istanbul/Istif-class Frigates (MILGEM project): The Istanbul-class (also known as Istif-class) frigates represent a larger, multi-role development under the MILGEM project, offering enhanced endurance and a MIDLAS vertical launching system for greater versatility. These frigates are armed with Atmaca anti-ship missiles and Hisar surface-to-air missiles and feature an advanced sensor suite, including the Aselsan CENK-S AESA radar. Shipyards involved in the construction of these frigates include Istanbul Naval Shipyard, Anadolu Shipyard, Sedef Shipyard, and Sefine Shipyard (part of the TAIS consortium), as well as STM.
@defensearabia حققت شركة STM إنجازًا هامًا من خلال توقيع عقد لبناء ثلاث سفن حربية للبحرية الملكية الماليزية ضمن برنامج سفن المهام الساحلية (LMS Batch 2). يُمثل هذا الاتفاق خطوة هائلة نحو تعزيز التعاون بين تركيا وماليزيا في مجال الدفاع البحري. ستقوم STM، بصفتها المقاول الرئيسي، بالإشراف على جميع مراحل المشروع، بدءًا من التصميم والهندسة وصولًا إلى البناء والتسليم. ستُجهز السفن بأنظمة تسليح متطورة وتكنولوجيا حديثة من شركات الدفاع التركية الرائدة مثل ASELSAN و HAVELSAN و ROKETSAN. @STMDefence @StmDefenceInt
♬ original sound – Defense Arabia – Defense Arabia
- Tuzla-class Patrol Boats (Dearsan): The Tuzla-class patrol boats, built by Dearsan Shipyard, are designed for patrol, security, and anti-submarine warfare operations in coastal areas. Their armament typically includes a 40mm main gun and 12.7mm machine guns.
- ADVENT Combat Management System (CMS): HAVELSAN’s ADVENT CMS is a network-supported data-integrated Combat Management System designed for force-oriented, network-centric naval operations. It integrates various weapon and sensor systems, providing real-time data processing and decision support capabilities.
- SANCAR Armed USV (HAVELSAN): SANCAR is designed for intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance (ISR), and defense missions . It can be armed with a 12.7 mm remote-controlled weapon system. The SANCAR can be controlled from a mobile ground control station utilizing the ADVENT C4ISR mission system, facilitating seamless integration with other naval platforms . It is capable of swarm operations and can perform various missions, including port and base protection, search and rescue, surface warfare, and mine countermeasures .
Syria’s navy has reportedly suffered significant damage, with substantial losses to its fleet, which largely comprises older vessels. Acquiring Turkish naval platforms, particularly the modern Ada-class corvettes and Istanbul-class frigates, could provide a significant enhancement to Syria’s naval capabilities. The success of the MILGEM project in producing advanced warships with a high degree of indigenous content makes these platforms attractive for potential export.
3.4 Missile and Ammunition Systems:
Turkey has also developed a range of indigenous missile and ammunition systems.
- Atmaca Anti-Ship Missile (Roketsan): The Atmaca is a long-range anti-ship missile produced by Roketsan, with a range exceeding 250 kilometers.
- Bora Ballistic Missile (Roketsan): Roketsan’s Bora is a short-range ballistic missile with a range of 80-280 km (Block I) and 100-360 km (Block II).
- MAM-L and MAM-C Smart Micro Munitions (Roketsan): These laser-guided UAV bombs, manufactured by Roketsan, have a range of approximately 8 kilometers and are designed for use with unmanned aerial vehicles.
- General-purpose bombs (MKE): MKEK produces MK general-purpose bombs under license.
Syria possesses various ballistic and cruise missiles. Turkish missile systems like the Bora could potentially replenish or augment these capabilities. The integration of Roketsan’s smart micro munitions with Turkish UAVs provides a versatile and effective strike capability that could be highly beneficial for Syria.
3.5 Electronic Warfare and Communication:
ASELSAN possesses extensive capabilities in Electronic Warfare (EW) system technologies, covering radar, communication, and anti-drone domains . The company offers a wide range of solutions, including Electronic Support Measures (ESM) systems for detecting and identifying enemy electronic emissions, and Electronic Attack (EA) systems for disrupting or deceiving those emissions . Integrated EW systems like KORAL/NG and VURAL combine both ESM and EA capabilities, providing comprehensive electronic warfare solutions .
In modern warfare, the ability to control the electromagnetic spectrum is paramount, and ASELSAN’s EW systems could offer a significant advantage by neutralizing enemy electronic capabilities.
In the realm of radar EW, ASELSAN produces the KORAL electronic warfare system, a mobile radar ES/EA system designed for Suppression of Enemy Air Defence (SEAD) operations . The VURAL system is another comprehensive radar ES/EA solution capable of detecting, intercepting, and analyzing radar signals to provide critical situational awareness . For naval applications, ASELSAN offers the ARES 2-NC and ARES 2-NCD as naval radar ESM systems, and the AREAS 2-NC as a naval radar ECM (Electronic Countermeasures) system . These systems enhance situational awareness and provide electronic attack capabilities for both surface and potentially unmanned platforms . The deployment of such radar EW systems could significantly improve Syria’s ability to detect and counter enemy radar threats.
ASELSAN also offers a range of communication EW systems. The GERGEDAN and ILGAR series are communication EA systems designed to disrupt adversary communication at the V/UHF bands . The PUHU series provides communication ES capabilities, enabling the detection, tracking, and analysis of target V/UHF communications . Disrupting enemy communication networks can severely impair their command and control capabilities, offering a crucial tactical advantage in conflict situations. Furthermore, ASELSAN has developed specific EW systems to counter the growing threat of drones. The ANTIDOT 3-U is a communication EW POD designed as a countermeasure against threat UAVs/drones . The BUKALEMUN system is developed for “GNSS Spoofing” to deceive UAVs relying on Multi-GNSS receivers, and the KANGAL FPV system actively jams relevant frequency bands to protect against Mini/Micro UAVs and FPV threats . These anti-drone EW systems provide essential tools for countering the increasing use of unmanned aerial vehicles in modern conflicts.
Beyond electronic warfare, ASELSAN offers a wide array of Military Communication and Information systems designed for land, air, and naval platforms . These include military avionics communication systems, military land communication systems, and military naval communication systems . Secure and reliable communication is fundamental for effective military operations, enabling seamless coordination and command and control. For land forces, ASELSAN provides tactical radios capable of clear, encrypted, and frequency-hopping voice/data communication in VHF/UHF bands, such as the ARTCom 5433 V/UHF-P and ARTCom 9661 V/UHF . The company also offers mobile wideband communication systems , which are crucial for transmitting large amounts of data across tactical networks. In the realm of military avionics communication, ASELSAN produces radios for communication between ground control stations and UAVs, such as the ARTCom 6993-A . They also offer airborne radios with national/NATO frequency hopping and encryption capabilities, like the ARTCom 9681 V/UHF-A . Additionally, ASELSAN manufactures Digital Intercommunication Systems (ICS) for aircraft, including the AICON DHS series, which facilitate communication among crew members and manage various communication equipment within the aircraft . These advanced communication systems would be essential for modernizing Syria’s military infrastructure and ensuring effective coordination across different branches of its armed forces.
3.6 Air Defense:
3.6.1 Current State of Syria’s Air Defense Capabilities and Modernization Needs
The Syrian Arab Air Defence Force (SyAADF), once considered a formidable force in the region, was disbanded on December 8, 2024. Prior to its dissolution, the SyAADF possessed a multi-layered air defense network largely comprised of Soviet-era systems . This inventory included long-range systems like the S-200, medium-range systems such as the S-75, S-125, and 2K12 Kub, and short-range systems like the 9K33 Osa and Pantsir-S1 . Some Iranian-supplied systems, including the Mersad, Khordad-3, and Khordad-15, were also reportedly delivered in recent years . While these systems provided overlapping coverage across much of the country, many were aging and vulnerable to modern electronic countermeasures, jamming, and anti-radiation missiles.
The operational effectiveness of Syria’s air defenses was significantly degraded by Israeli airstrikes. It is estimated that approximately 86% of the SyAADF’s systems were destroyed during intense airstrikes on December 9 and 10, 2024 . This extensive damage, coupled with the disbandment of the air defense force, necessitates a complete rebuilding and modernization of Syria’s air defense infrastructure . Experts agree that the new Syrian administration will need to establish its army, including its air capabilities, virtually from the ground up, as much of the existing military infrastructure has been severely damaged . This situation presents a critical need for modern air defense systems to protect against potential future aerial threats.
3.6.2 Potential Turkish Air Defense Systems Suitable for Syria’s Requirements
Turkey’s diverse portfolio of indigenous air defense systems offers solutions across various ranges and altitudes, potentially providing a comprehensive layered defense architecture for Syria.
For short-range defense, the ASELSAN’s KORKUT SPAAG could be particularly valuable in protecting critical infrastructure and mobile units against low-altitude threats such as drones, cruise missiles, and helicopters . Its high rate of fire and ability to use airburst ammunition make it effective against a range of modern aerial threats . The system’s mobility, based on a tracked armored vehicle chassis, would also be advantageous for the rebuilt Syrian army .
In the medium-altitude range, the HISAR-O missile system offers a significant upgrade over Syria’s older Soviet-era systems . With a range of 25+ km (and up to 40+ km for the RF version) and an altitude capability of 15+ km, HISAR-O can effectively engage various airborne targets, including aircraft and cruise missiles . Its modular design and integration capabilities would allow for flexible deployment within Syria’s new defense structure .
For longer-range air defense, the SIPER missile system, with its Block 1 variant exceeding 100 km in range and Block 2 reaching over 150 km, could provide Syria with a strategic capability to deter more significant aerial threats . While perhaps a more substantial investment, acquiring SIPER systems would significantly enhance Syria’s ability to protect strategic assets and airspace .
The modularity of the HISAR family and the advanced capabilities of SIPER and KORKUT make them potentially well-suited to address the diverse air defense needs of a nation rebuilding its military.
4. Economic Implications of Turkish-Syrian Defense Cooperation:
4.1 Benefits for Turkey:
The prospect of large-scale arms exports to Syria presents significant economic benefits for Turkey. It offers a substantial new market for Turkey’s rapidly expanding defense industry, providing opportunities for increased production and revenue generation . Turkish defense companies could secure lucrative contracts related to rebuilding Syria’s significantly damaged military infrastructure . Furthermore, successful arms exports would contribute to strengthening Turkey’s geopolitical influence in the strategically important Middle East region . This defense cooperation also provides Turkey with an opportunity to promote its “defense industry model” to a new partner and potentially engage in mutually beneficial technology transfer initiatives . Overall, arms exports to Syria represent a considerable economic opportunity for Turkey’s burgeoning defense sector, with the potential to boost its growth and enhance its standing as a global arms exporter.
4.2 Benefits and Drawbacks for Syria:
For Syria, engaging in defense cooperation with Turkey offers both potential benefits and significant drawbacks. It could provide access to a potentially reliable source of modern military equipment, crucial for rebuilding its shattered armed forces . There is also the prospect of technology transfer from Turkey, which could aid Syria in developing its own domestic defense industry over the long term . However, a significant drawback for Syria could be the potential for increased reliance on Turkey for its defense needs, which might impact its long-term sovereignty and strategic autonomy .
Moreover, Syria’s economy has been devastated by years of conflict, and the country faces significant financial constraints, exacerbated by ongoing international sanctions . These economic challenges could severely limit Syria’s ability to finance large-scale arms purchases from Turkey or any other nation. The specific nature and scale of these acquisitions will depend on two key factors, according to Col. Zafer Mourad: “the Syrian Army’s role in addressing future threats and challenges, necessitating specific capabilities and weaponry, and Syria’s financial resources and allocated defense budget, with the new government likely relying on aid and donations”.
4.3 Impact of International Sanctions and Trade Dynamics:
The existing international sanctions imposed on Syria could significantly impede its ability to engage in large-scale arms purchases from Turkey or any other country . However, Turkey has taken steps to lift some trade barriers with Syria, a move that could potentially facilitate the transfer of arms and other military-related goods . There are also ongoing discussions between Ankara and Damascus to potentially re-enact a free trade agreement that was suspended in 2011, which could further ease economic interactions, including in the defense sector . The partial easing of some international sanctions by key players like the EU and the UK, combined with the strengthening of trade ties between Turkey and Syria, could create a more favorable economic environment for future arms exports.
One key advantage for Syria is that many Turkish weapons are manufactured without American components, which could minimize the risk of export restrictions or external political pressure. However, any large-scale arms procurement would have far-reaching geopolitical consequences, potentially altering regional power dynamics and influencing Syria’s relationships with neighboring states.
According to Col. Mourad, “Western sanctions could significantly impact Syrian-Turkish defense cooperation, depending on their scope and enforcement.” While the United States has the primary leverage to impose effective sanctions, European nations have less influence over Turkey.
The sanctions on Syria’s previous regime may eventually be lifted, this will take time, and Western nations remain cautious in reestablishing relations with Syria’s new government. Given these uncertainties, Turkey and its defense companies may also proceed cautiously in supplying Syria with strategic weaponry. However, the acquisition of light and medium arms may not face immediate restrictions.
Be the first to comment