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FARNBOROUGH, United Kingdom, July 11, 2016 – Boeing [NYSE: BA] projects a demand for 39,620 new airplanes over the next 20 years, an increase of 4.1 percent over last year’s forecast. Boeing released its annual Current Market Outlook (CMO) on the first day of the Farnborough International Airshow, estimating the total value of those new airplanes at $5.9 trillion.
“Despite recent events that have impacted the financial markets, the aviation sector will continue to see long-term growth with the commercial fleet doubling in size,” said Randy Tinseth, vice president of Marketing, Boeing Commercial Airplanes. “We expect to see passenger traffic grow 4.8 percent a year over the next two decades.”
The single-aisle market will be especially strong, with low-cost carriers and emerging markets driving growth. 28,140 new airplanes will be needed in this segment, an increase of more than 5 percent over last year.
“There’s no question the heart of the single-aisle market is around the new Boeing MAX 8 and MAX 200, as well as the current 737-800. Airplanes that size already account for 76 percent of the current single-aisle global backlog, and our products have the clear advantage in that space.”
On the widebody side, 9,100 airplanes are in the forecast, with a large wave of potential replacement demand in the 2021- 2028 time frame. Boeing projects a continued shift from very large airplanes to small and medium widebodies such as the 787, 777 and 777X.
With cargo traffic forecasted to grow at 4.2 percent per year, Boeing projects the need for 930 new freighters and 1,440 converted freighters.
New Airplane Deliveries Through 2035
| Airplane type | Seats | Total deliveries | Dollar value |
| Regional jets | 90 and below | 2,380 | $110 billion |
| Single-aisle | 90 – 230 | 28,140 | $3,000 billion |
| Small widebody | 200 – 300 | 5,100 | $1,350 billion |
| Medium widebody | 300 – 400 | 3,470 | $1,250 billion |
| Large widebody | 400 and above | 530 | $220 billion |
| Total | ——— | 39,620 | $5.9 trillion |
The Asia market, including China, will continue to lead the way in total airplane deliveries over the next two decades.
New Airplane Deliveries Through 2035
| Region | Airplane deliveries |
| Asia | 15,130 |
| North America | 8,330 |
| Europe | 7,570 |
| Middle East | 3,310 |
| Latin America | 2,960 |
| Africa | 1,150 |
| C.I.S. | 1,170 |
| Total | 39,620 |
Boeing’s Current Market Outlook is the longest running jet forecast and regarded as the most comprehensive analysis of the aviation industry. The full report can be found at www.boeing.com/cmo.
Forward-Looking Information Is Subject to Risk and Uncertainty
Certain statements in this release may be “forward-looking” within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Words such as “expects,” “forecasts,” “projects,” “plans,” “believes,” “estimates” and similar expressions are used to identify these forward-looking statements. Examples of forward-looking statements include statements relating to our future plans, business prospects, financial condition and operating results, as well as any other statement that does not directly relate to any historical or current fact. Forward-looking statements are based on current assumptions about future events that may not prove to be accurate. These statements are not guarantees and are subject to risks, uncertainties and changes in circumstances that are difficult to predict.
Many factors could cause actual events to differ materially from these forward-looking statements, including economic conditions in the United States and globally, general industry conditions as they may impact us or our customers, and other important factors disclosed previously and from time to time in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date they are made and we undertake no obligation to update or revise any such statement, except as required by law.
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