Confronting the Iran: America’s Military Challenge

Patricia Marins

About a month ago, on March 7, Trump sent an ultimatum to Iran through intermediaries from the United Arab Emirates. But it wasn’t just about the nuclear program or ballistic missiles. The Americans demanded that Tehran completely end a series of geopolitical projects, including the dissolution of Iran-controlled militias in the Middle East. The deadline for Iran to comply with the ultimatum, or at least come to the negotiating table, will expire on May 1.

In fact, the United States believes that now, after the defeat in Syria and the serious damage inflicted by Israel on Hezbollah and Hamas, culminating in American attacks on the Houthis, Iran would be weaker, and this would be the moment to pressure the regime, which sees the terms of the ultimatum as unacceptable and humiliating.

The Americans are ramping up the pressure, with over 20 cargo planes landing in Qatar carrying weaponry in recent weeks, in addition to aircraft being transferred to the US military base in Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, including seven of the 19 B-2A Spirit strategic bombers. A second aircraft carrier group is heading to the Persian Gulf – the aircraft carrier Harry Truman will be joined by the Carl Vinson.

The media is discussing a possible attack on Iran’s underground facilities using GBU-57 bunker buster bombs, which could compromise the Iranian program. However, the reality is much more complex.

I will address this in five points:

1. Iran has more anti-aircraft batteries than all of Europe combined. In all the attacks carried out, even Israel, using F-35s, did not dare to enter Iranian territory, preferring to work with airborne ballistic missiles. American bombers would have to enter Iranian airspace and remain flying over the area for hundreds of kilometers to approach their targets, as bunker buster bombs have a range of only about 80 km. Such a feat would mean being at risk from missile batteries with ranges exceeding 300 km, equipped with hypersonic missiles. Even the B-2s have never faced such a challenge against modern batteries like the BAVAR 373 and missiles such as the Sayyad 4. This would be a completely different scenario from Iraq or Libya.
2. Another point is that the GBU-57 bunker buster bombs would do little against Iranian facilities. Although these bombs are designed to penetrate up to 60 meters in reinforced concrete bunkers or soil, the architecture of Iranian facilities is made of UHPC developed by themselves, which is extremely resilient. To shorten the matter, these bombs, when tested against fortifications made of UHPC, penetrated less than 15 meters. Not to mention that a good portion of these bunkers is located under mountains, and as it was done in partnership with North Koreans, we can expect hundreds of meters of depth. The chance of the GBU-57 bombs successfully hitting important targets of the Iranian program is very low.
3. However, if the Americans are using their bases in Qatar to acquire targets in Iranian territory, I would say it is something very dangerous. The Iranians may not destroy American power, but they would certainly cause chaos in maritime traffic and possess a missile arsenal capable of turning Qatar into ruins.
4. Diego Garcia is about 4,000 km from Iran, and I am skeptical about the range of Iranian weapons being precise enough to strike the island. However, I want to remind you that the Khorramshahr and Sejjil missiles, as well as the Shahed 136 drones, were announced with a range of exactly 4,000 km.
5. I am skeptical about the US’s ability to stop the Iranian program with airstrikes, though no one disputes the military power of the United States.

I believe that the insistence on entering Iranian territory could lead to a significant military catastrophe, with a high risk of aircraft losses.

Therefore, I think an attack would be limited to economic aspects, targeting infrastructure:

For example, almost 80% of all cargo turnover with the outside world goes through the port of Bandar Abbas. Even this measure would need to be cautious, as there are strong suspicions that Iran possesses anti-ship missiles with ranges exceeding 1,000 km. Iran is becoming a significant player and has a robust military industry. It cannot be underestimated. The recent mimics of attacks exchanged between the country and Israel do not reflect the real destruction power that a full-scale war would inflict on the entire region. An attack on Iran is far more comprehensive than just flights with bunker buster bombs. The US has at least 10 military bases and 50,000 soldiers there. Tehran has enough missiles and UAVs that can hit these bases creating large war and involving other countries. Anything involving Iran is complex and demand deep analysis.