Mark Allworthy
The world order is undergoing a profound transformation. Longstanding alliances and security frameworks are increasingly uncertain, while international relations are shifting towards transactional foundations. The renewed assertiveness of the United States is likely to accelerate power politics globally and will ultimately intensify rivalry for scarce resources and influence among the world’s great powers. In this environment, the Gulf States have positioned themselves at the intersection of competing spheres of influence, uniquely equipped and motivated to bridge, or even merge, geopolitical divides.
The mere perception of a more transactional nature in international relations will have far-reaching consequences for geopolitical and geoeconomic environments. The bonds that bind traditional security guarantees and extended deterrence will inexorably weaken, replaced instead by varying degrees of interdependence driven by economic and technological entanglement.
Countries most embedded in these networks will enjoy disproportionate and distributed geopolitical leverage. Over time, states will look to secure sovereignty over advanced technologies, in particular those tied to defence capabilities, and these will become critical to national security. As a result, defence acquisitions and sales will become increasingly competitive as governments seek to lock in elements of national industrial development, intellectual property control, and technology sharing.
The recent shifts in the global order will reverberate with unforeseen and unintended consequences, although some notable trends are likely already set in motion. The immediate surge in global defence spending will lay the foundations for a future arms race, as countries seek to master or acquire the underlying advanced defence and space technologies to secure military advantage.
Only the United States, China, and Russia possess the resources and expertise to develop sovereign, exquisite defence capabilities, whereas second- and third-tier military powers will struggle to finance the development let alone the acquisition of cutting-edge defence systems. The staggering costs of programmes like the U.S. Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) programmes and their associated Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) initiatives plainly illustrate the financial barriers to sovereign capability development for smaller economies. As competition intensifies, the finite pool of human capital in advanced technological fields will become even more valuable to national security and the demand for, and therefore the cost of their services, will increase thus compounding costs.
Consequently, states will have little choice but to collaborate on future defence projects, navigating complex political and economic priorities in the process. The Global Combat Air Programme, currently comprising a partnership of the United Kingdom, Italy, and Japan, has received a recent political shot in the arm but is still likely to need both a further injection of developmental costs and guaranteed markets to allow the companies involved to secure or justify investment. Such partnerships will undoubtedly be more commonplace in the future defence and space ecosystem and will reshape alliances, strategic ambitions, and objectives.
Assuming that the smaller economies can muster and coordinate resources to develop such exquisite capabilities, they will also need to guarantee access to an underlying and fully integrated space architecture and infrastructure on which virtually all future capabilities will depend. Cooperation in the space domain therefore, both through international and private sector partnerships, will be an inevitable and growing consideration for national security and economic policy.
Against this backdrop, the Gulf States’ strategy of multialignment looks extremely prescient: they have simultaneously strengthened links with their primary security guarantors, the United States, deepened ties to Europe and Australasia, expanded relations and cooperation with China and Russia, and also, through a deft combination of soft power and geoeconomic heft, forged respect in multiple emerging markets. Their growing geopolitical and geoeconomic influence extends across many domains and regions and has solidified their role as key international players.
Embracing this position on the world stage, and recognising that persistent regional instability is an obstacle to the economic and social transformation that is fundamental to the future of their people, the Gulf States have embraced political reconciliation as a foundation for long-term security. This shift is evident in landmark developments such as the Abraham Accords, the rekindling of unity within the GCC, the thawing of relations with Syria, increasing diplomatic engagement with their longtime strategic antagonist, Iran, and measured restraint in dealings with the Houthi threat. More recently, their role as direct brokers in peace talks involving the United States, Russia, and Ukraine underscores their evolving geopolitical significance and diplomatic capabilities. This pragmatic mindset will set the strategic bearings to navigate the challenges and complexities of the impending dynamics of international relations.
While the ongoing crisis in Gaza has undoubtedly challenged recent diplomatic progress – potentially to the political advantage of some regional actors – the fundamental strategic trajectory remains unchanged. The Gulf states are carving out a unique position in global affairs, rooted in the full spectrum of realpolitik. Their ability to balance unprecedented economic growth and regional security with complex and competing international relations, forged through decades of conflict, proliferation, and deterrence, makes them primary partners for advanced technology and defence collaboration.
Few regions today can match the Gulf states’ financial and political firepower, underpinned not only by the enduring value of their hydrocarbon wealth but also their leadership in emerging green energy solutions. Few can match their centralised and coordinated approach to long-term strategy, which seeks to integrate investment and security policy. As the dust settles from the sudden shock to the global order, the Gulf states will play a crucial role in shaping the new geopolitical equilibrium.
Globally integrated, they have the potential to act as mediators and catalysts for compromise. Strategically integrated in emerging technologies, they could emerge as the pivotal swing states of future power blocs. Defence trade delegations as well as advanced technology startup companies from São Paulo to Tokyo will likely be visiting the capitals of capital to secure partnerships in programmes to secure their future space and defence capabilities.
The success of the Gulf states’ various flag carriers in accelerating economic development through a hub-and-spoke model offers a compelling analogy. Could the same approach be applied to the geopolitical landscape, with the GCC States leveraging their unique position to shape the emerging world order? The answer may define the next phase of global diplomacy and security.
Mark Allworthy is a London-based Partner for the UAE space services firm, AzurX
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